US advises all its citizens to leave Ethiopia; here is why

The US embassy in Addis Ababa advised all U.S. citizens to leave Ethiopia as soon as possible, a statement on their website said on Friday, after an alliance of anti-government forces threatened to march on the capital city.

“The security environment in Ethiopia is very fluid. We advise US citizens who are in Ethiopia to leave the country as soon as possible,” the statement said.

Rebellious forces from Ethiopia’s Tigray region have pushed to within a day’s drive of the capital Addis Ababa and are threatening to march on the city of 5 million people.

But any denouement to the year-long war could take far longer to play out.

Forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)would have to fight through hostile territory in the neighbouring region of Amhara to reach Addis.

They could also face resistance from other Ethiopians who fear the return to power of a party that ruled with an iron fist for the nearly three decades it dominated central government before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018.

Oromiya, the region that surrounds Addis Ababa, is divided. Abiy is part Oromo and support from Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group helped propel him to power after years of anti-government protests.

He lost some of that support when security forces detained thousands of Oromos, some of whom accused him of not doing enough for the community. Several Oromo leaders were also detained in the wake of deadly riots that killed hundreds.

The TPLF

has since forged an alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which is also fighting the central government. This week, both groups said they had seized strategic towns in Amhara and were considering advancing on Addis Ababa.

On Friday, the TPLF and OLA were due to sign an alliance in Washington with seven other rebel groups.

Billene Seyoum, the prime minister’s spokeswoman, said the alliance could not be relied on to deliver democracy.

“The opening up of the political space three years ago provided ample opportunity for contenders to settle their differences at the ballot box in June 2021,” she said in a tweet.

Regional diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the threats to march on Addis could be a tactic to try to force Abiy into negotiations or to step down. TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda, who did not respond to requests for comment, has said there should be an interim government and Abiy should be put on trial.

Ethiopian officials have accused Tigrayan forces of exaggerating territorial gains. Spokespeople for the government and military did not return calls seeking comment on the threats by both groups.

Tigrayan forces could instead try to increase pressure on Abiy’s government by cutting off the landlocked country from the region’s main seaport. They could also enter the capital with or behind their Oromo allies.

“The operation will be spearheaded by the OLA,” said Oda Tarbii, an OLA spokesman. “This is simply our land and therefore within our jurisdiction.”